Chris Pratt was a relatively well-known goof ball actor with Parks and Rec. He was not cast as a regular during season 1, but he was so talented and quirky that they wrote him into the show, and he quickly became a staple. After Parks and Rec he really broke out with his role in Guardians of the Galaxy and then of course there was Jurassic World. Pratt was no longer the goof ball supporting actor, but the star of the show – a globally recognizable force.
Sometimes all it takes to make the jump, is a new role or opportunity. Goodwin is about to Pratt
It really is difficult to use the term breakout anymore in fantasy football. There are thousands of analysts now, and we all have our own takes – it is difficult to have unique views on players. Marquise Goodwin is a player being labeled as a breakout by so many, yet the reflection in his ADP still isn’t there.
Everyone loves Marquise – some even more than I do, but he is still being drafted 100 overall, according to FantasyPros, which is the 9th round in most drafts. This very well might change as he continues to impress in Training Camp (I talked to beat reporter Grant Cohn a bit about this) and will probably dominate any preseason action he sees. But right now, he is not being drafted as the breakout he is.
Last year Goodwin only had a 17.5% target share on the year with a 53.3% catch rate for the season, but that was with C.J.Beathard and Brian Hoyer playing Quarterback, who combined only averaged a 56.4% completion rate. These numbers took a significant jump after Jimmy Garappolo entered the picture. His target share jumped to 26.2% and he did that with a 67.4% catch rate!
For comparison, here are some wideouts with similar rates:
Name Target Percentage Catch Rate
Larry Fitzgerald 27% 67.7%
Stefon Diggs 21% 67.4%
Doug Baldwin 21% 64.7%
Keenan Allen 27% 64.2%
Adam Thielen 27% 64.1%
Demaryius Thomas 25% 59.3%
What do all these WR have in common? They are going in the first 4 rounds of drafts this year.
My projections for Marquise Goodwin
119 Targets for 80 receptions, 1,008 yds 6 TD
This would be good enough to place between WR 15 – 18 most years. Receivers in this range should get drafted in the 4th or 5th Round, which is more than four rounds earlier than Goodwin is going.
Yes, Pierre Garcon is healthy (for now) and rookies Dante Pettis and Richie James have joined the team, but Goodwin provides a skillset and presence that is unique and rare. If Garappolo can stay healthy watch out for Goodwin to breakout.